Dissection/predictions

I've been turning over the show in my head, especially the last five minutes - really, three seasons have been building to that, haven't they? There's still a ton left to find out about the island itself, but now the question becomes: where is next season going to pick up? It's hardly obvious - the next episode could as easily pick up right where it left off as it could with a Jack eyeball shot on a boat or plane, or for that matter with another flashback or flash-forward - but we can perhaps make a few guesses about the next move based on the events of "Through the Looking Glass."

Jack, Kate, and at least one other person (probably two) get off the island.

I feel safe in assuming that the flash-forwards are somewhat malleable - i.e. they're set at the end of a timeline that the plot is currently following, but Jack may or may not trace his path to that exact point. I would be exceedingly surprised, for example, if the show were to suddenly leap forward and pick up where it left off at the very end of the episode, as opposed to at the end of the "present" time period. Kate's "he" is probably supposed to be Sawyer, since if it's not him it could really be anyone, while the dead guy is most likely either Locke or Ben. (Ben seems unlikely to leave the island voluntarily, but he was tied up.)

Some sort of deal was involved.

Drew first proposed this in a discussion we were having, and it makes sense. Just look at the dialogue - Kate states that "this isn't going to change," while Jack says he is "sick of lying." Well, lying about what?

Remember: there's a plane with bodies in the ocean off Bali, where the real plane would never have ended up. Assuming that the Widmore Corporation is connected with Hanso, has a hugely powerful global reach, and wants to find the island and perhaps has some sense of its history, it makes sense to think that when Widmore heard about the plane crash - tying it in with the electromagnetic anomaly they were apparently looking for - they moved to plant the fake plane to throw rescuers off the scent. Because Widmore/Hanso wanted to find the island again, something they had probably been unable to do since the Purge of the Dharma Initiative, and they didn't want anyone else to stumble across it in the process. Hence why they were so mad about the S1 anomaly being missed, leading to the scramble in the listening station over the S2 anomaly. Penelope probably had gleaned some knowledge of the island from her father's dealings and suspected that Desmond could be found there, hence why she requested that the men in the listening station contact her as well.

This doesn't totally explain why Naomi had Desmond's picture or stated that she was looking for him, of course. Perhaps Widmore knew what his daughter was up to and supplied Naomi with a copy of the photo to throw anyone suspicious of her off the scent.

But okay: fake plane intended to thwart rescuers from getting anywhere near the island so that a Widmore/Hanso team could find it first and perhaps attempt to resume Dharma-like operations (or even something more sinister). Ben does seem truly terrified of the consequences of Jack's phone call; despite many of his actions, it doesn't seem impossible to think that, in many ways, he is going to turn out to be the "good guy" of the story, at least where the island itself is concerned.

So Widmore/Hanso allow people off the island, but perhaps they force them to lie about where they'd been? Ben doesn't want the outside world knowing about the island, so other people aware of its properties could surely feel the same way. Perhaps the freighter could steam over to Bali and pretend to have rescued the Losties there. This would explain Jack's desire to "stop lying," certainly, and Widmore/Hanso holding something over the Losties' heads would explain Kate's vehemence that "this isn't going to change." And of course, it would explain Jack's behavior - perhaps knowing what he allowed Widmore/Hanso to do on or to the island, or to some of the people there, is eating Jack up inside, and certainly his reaction to the death is telling. Could Locke have ended up back in a wheelchair as a result of leaving the island and offed himself, leaving Jack to feel responsible for his death? Could Ben have killed himself (or been killed) after being forcibly removed from the island? The latter seems to fit in a little better with Kate's "Why would I go [to the funeral]?" but it's hardly a given. (There are quite a few people on the island who would be unlikely to have anyone turn up at a viewing for them in LA, after all.)

The biggest question for next year, of course - which means it probably won't be answered until 2009 - is this: What exactly does Jack learn between "Through the Looking Glass"'s present and its future that causes him to feel that leaving the island was a mistake? Why does he want to get back so badly? For that matter, why does Kate "have" to go with him?

Well, there's the thought that, prior to crashing on the island, Jack's life peaked when he saved Sarah and was all downhill from there. On the island, Jack is a hero and a leader; off the island he was a wandering drunk with a failed marriage. That said, his desire to get back seems rooted in a lot more than his own desire to be a hero. They weren't meant to leave? It would be one thing if everyone were suffering off the island, but Kate seems to be doing okay, right? (And, if she's with Sawyer, Sawyer, although I give that a 50/50 shot, really.)

Maybe the bulk of the survivors aren't allowed to leave? (It would create a lot of questions for Widmore/Hanso if they faked the plane crash, claiming everyone was dead, and then more than a handful of people turned up alive, no?) Jack wants to return to what has really become his family - more so than what is left in the real world - while Kate is more willing to cut ties if it means a more normal life? Whoever the other person is who offed himself (assuming that's what happened, but it does seem like the implication) could be having the same remorse/guilt as Jack. This might also explain why it seems like either Kate doesn't want to talk to Jack at all, or why they have been discouraged from contacting each other (which would explain their meeting spot; I kind of got this vibe more so than that Kate herself just didn't want to see Jack).

I may be guilty of overanalysis at this point. But is such a thing really possible with this show? I say no. There's really tons more I could theoretically go over, but I'll hold myself to this for now. It alone may very well keep me occupied for the next eight months. It's funny looking back, because I started this blog having loved the first season on DVD and then feeling pretty disappointed for much of the second season and into the first part of the third season. But the second half of Season 3 is probably as good as television has ever been for me personally. I will be there in 2010, come hell or high water.